If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq? - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 02:02 PM Thread Starter
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If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

Setting aside all of our differences and hanging our egos up by the “door� of this thread, I want to throw out a thought to everyone.

My question is this (and there’s absolutely no hidden motive/agenda here – this is an innocent question), if Kerry is elected president in November, what should he do with the mess in Iraq?

Here are two things to consider about this:

1) Assuming it’ll take years for Iraq to get back on its feet again to be able to control its own people and its borders, if Kerry withdraws our troops from Iraq the country could collapse and turn into a total chaotic disaster and would be a hotbed for terrorists (which would come back to haunt us). Also, if Kerry did remove our troops, or even many of them, the international community would turn on us for our “hit and run� in Iraq and that would turn into a bad political move for the U.S. and Kerry.

The other thought is this, and it’s pretty straightforward:

2) If Kerry keeps troops there our guys will still be sitting ducks and the flag-draped caskets will still be coming home.

What should Kerry do about this if he were president?

Don’t use this thread to state what Bush, or anyone else should have done or is currently doing/not doing -- that’s in the past. I’m talking about what you think Kerry should do about our involvement in Iraq if he becomes president.
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post #2 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 02:13 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

Quote:
98MBE320 - 9/28/2004 4:02 PM

My question is this (and there’s absolutely no hidden motive/agenda here – this is an innocent question), if Kerry is elected president in November, what should he do with the mess in Iraq?
I believe the candidate spoke about this last week, during his stop in NYC, including the stop on the Late Show with David Letterman. Obviously, he cannot be specific about what he will do, since it will depend on the Iraq that he inherits from the current administration.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2004_0920.html
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post #3 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 02:18 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

I'd like him to withdraw troops and get the UN involved. As for as I can see, this should've been a worldwide responsibility in the first place.

And also, you have to take into account the terrorists motives. If we continue to occupy Iraq, that's going to give them a bigger, more solid cause to fight for. If we withdraw, it will be harder for terrorist leaders to recruit others, as their "freedom fighters" arguement won't hold has much water when they aren't being oppressed.
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post #4 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 02:32 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

Iraq is an absolute quagmire -- flat out, and there's certainly no quick fix. The place is now a crucible for terrorism, and withdrawal would only compound the problem. Any way you look at it, we're in this for the long haul, but Kerry is simply in a better position to seek help from the world community than GW, and reduce our presence there. Not only has GW brushed off the UN, his reelection would serve as an American mandate for the invasion to the world community -- not good. It seems to me that the only viable longterm solution is to divide the country to accommodate the three major factions -- border wars seem preferable to civil wars, but that should be left to the U.N to sort out, or at least the major players in the area.

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post #5 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 02:52 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

WOW! An election '04 thread that's actually about...shock of shockers: POLICY

I'm impressed. Keep it up.
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post #6 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 03:17 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

good link MTI. maybe those who think Kerry has no plans will actually read it...

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post #7 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 03:19 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

The solution to the problem of Iraq is the exact opposite of what is currently being done, and it’s too bad the US electorate is unable to handle much more in the way of issues than the pap the press feed us, because it is something we as a nation should be debating. The current solution, which is to create a new version of what has always been an artificial state that has never worked, called "Iraq" as some kind of Utopian democracy is doomed to failure.

There are three main ethnic groups in Iraq. One, the Kurds, have already set up a defacto nation of Kurdistan, and given the history of genocide that they have been the victim of at the hands of the rest of Iraq, they will never assent to allowing any Iraqi National Army on its soil, and neither will it partake in a democracy where it is the minority party. On the plus side, of all the "Iraqi" ethnic groups, they are our greatest allies, because American air power and weapons protected them from Saddam from 1991 to the present, allowing them to set up their enclave. They see us as protectors from the genocidal enemies around them - not only Sunni Baghdad, but Turkey and Iran, they all want the Kurds dead. The Kurds have vast oil reserves that only since their defacto statehood have they finally been able to reap some benefit from, although even now the US treats it not as "Kurdish" oil but as "Iraqi" oil.

The second is the Sunnis, the people who inhabit the area known thru history as Mesopotamia, historical rulers of Baghdad who at one time ruled most of the Middle East. They are a tribal society, and have a tribal elder governmental system and a governmental culture that is best compared to the Sicilian Mafia, which explains how Saddam Hussein rose to power. Surprisingly, the people who live in this culture seem pretty happy with their system. Their cohesion and their ruthlessness allowed them to take control of modern Iraq after the British left. These tribes are sub-branches of larger Arab tribes that exist in Syria, Arabia, Yeman, Kuwait, The Emirates and Jordan, which in turn are part of the greater Sunni Arab culture extending into Egypt, Libya, Somalia and the Sudan. The Baath Party, founded by Gamel Nasser, is a political entity in all these countries, either out in the open or suppressed, and it advocates the unification of all these countries into a Greater Arabia, which is what Hussein was attempting to achieve. There is very little oil located in the Sunni triangle. Their economic wealth has always come from plundering their neighbors, their control of the Tigris and Euphrates river junction, and agricultural bounty created by these rivers in an otherwise rainless land.

The third group, the Shiites, are of Arab extraction but were under Persian domination for a great part of their history, and they are culturally and religiously more like the Iranians, have inter-married with them extensively, and they also live under a religious hierarchy that is headquartered in Iran. A little mentioned fact, Mullah Sisitani, the so-called leader of the Iraqi Shiites, is an Iranian - he doesn't even speak Arabic. Since they were cleaved from Iran by the British, they have longed to return. For this reason the Iran-Iraq War was fought. They have also been brutally repressed by Hussein, and at the end of the Gulf War, we screwed them bad by withdrawing American and UN troops from Iraq after encouraging them to rise up. Hussein slaughtered them. Economically, their wealth comes from farming and from the fact that the main shrines of the Shiite religion are located in their territory, which brings in many dollars from pilgrims. They also sit on top of an ocean of oil, from which they have never benefited. US and British foreign policy has been much like Saddam’s policies - we will do anything to keep Shiite Iraq from re-uniting with Iran, creating an oil superpower. The Shiites, distrust the Kurds because the Kurds are a historic enemy of Iran, and they also hate the Sunni’s for what they have done to them over the years – in fact, the only thing these two groups have ever done is blow themselves up, assassinate, kidnap, and torture each other for centuries as they battle out deep religious and political differences. The Baathist, who believe all Arabs should be united, look upon these Arab non-Arabs as traitors, while the Sunni Arab fundamentalists consider them heretics. This has never been a match made in heaven.

These are the people, 25 million of them, that we think 138,000 American troops are going to make play nice together. It is a stupid idea. Every study has said it was impossible, and yesterday a CIA report was leaked saying they told Bush this before he invaded. Our best solution is the same one used in Kosovo and Yugoslavia. We partition the place. US troops withdraw into Kurdistan. The Shiites need to be allowed to hold their own elections, truly free elections - which they are more than willing to do without our help, and if they wish to unite with Iran or offer Iran bases so they can be protected from the Sunni’s, we should let them do it or use diplomacy to try to talk them out of it.

The Sunnis should be treated like the Serbs – we allow them to run their own affairs but we surround them with barb wire and troops. The status-quo under the UN should return, with no fly zones and bombs if they do not comply. If they can figure out a way to become democratic on their own, we should help them. Altough we would have to pay the price we and the British having been trying to prevent since 1920 - the ceding of Shia Iraq to Iran, we will end the existance of the permenant civil war that has existed in Iraq since 1920. Dictators will no longer be the only ones who can control the place. On the plus side, we will have a place to peaceably headquarter a huge American army in the Middle East, adjacent to our Turkish allies and smack dab in the middle of the place, in Kurdistan.







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post #8 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 04:08 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

That's a thorough analysis, although I'm a little sceptical that democracy will arise in the absence of the military, any more than it has elsewhere in the Arab world.

I'd like to see as little intervention as possible in Iraq & elsewhere, with the exception of REALLY preventing WMD development - such as the opportunity we missed in Iran.

As an aside, I'm listening to Tony Blair on TV at the moment saying he is 'sorry that the intelligence about WMD in Iraq was wrong'. He is admitting at last there are no WMD's, but the sob will NOT apologise for distorting the intelligence, such as it was, for political ends, resulting in deaths of tens of thousands &co. I despair...
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post #9 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 04:43 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

Agree with KV, Turkey will pitch a fit but now is the perfect time to do it because they want in the EU. They will be less likely to attack the Kurds with that on the table.

Screw the rest of them. Pull the troops, throw them the keys to Bagdad and tell em to have fun.


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post #10 of 13 (permalink) Old 09-28-2004, 04:56 PM
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RE: If Elected, What Should Kerry Do About Iraq?

Quote:
jjl - 9/28/2004 6:08 PM

That's a thorough analysis, although I'm a little sceptical that democracy will arise in the absence of the military, any more than it has elsewhere in the Arab world.

I'd like to see as little intervention as possible in Iraq & elsewhere, with the exception of REALLY preventing WMD development - such as the opportunity we missed in Iran.

As an aside, I'm listening to Tony Blair on TV at the moment saying he is 'sorry that the intelligence about WMD in Iraq was wrong'. He is admitting at last there are no WMD's, but the sob will NOT apologise for distorting the intelligence, such as it was, for political ends, resulting in deaths of tens of thousands &co. I despair...
I think it will never arise in Sunni Iraq. Like I said, they are modelled on the Mafia, or perhaps the Mafia is modelled on them. Worse, they like it that way. The best thing to do is the North Korea/Serbia approach - wall 'em off.

The Shiites are more than capable of democracy. That's what we are so scared off.


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