China race analysis - Hamilton's luck runs out

[Teutone]

08 Oct 2007
China race analysis - Hamilton's luck runs out

The Chinese Grand Prix could scarcely have been better for Ferrari, nor worse for McLaren. For the first 25 laps it went the latter’s way, with Lewis Hamilton leading comfortably from Kimi Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa.

But then the Englishman’s McLaren ate its wet-weather Bridgestone tyres faster than the Ferrari did, and suddenly not only could and had Raikkonen passed him, but Hamilton had that celebrated slide into the gravel trap, and the agonising retirement which threw the world championship for drivers wide open again.

It was an understandable mistake, for his rear tyres in particular looked almost down to the canvass, and the team took their share of the blame for keeping him out a lap too long.

That was the problem: in a wet but drying race where it rained again briefly, making the right calls was a nightmare that some got right, and some didn’t. McLaren didn’t want to bring Hamilton in for dries when there was a chance of more rain, but the deliberate delay in making the crucial decision on the timing of his second stop would prove very costly.

By the time Hamilton’s race ended, it had already slipped into Ferrari’s hands. Raikkonen had passed him easily on lap 28, and streaked away. Alonso and Massa had also closed in, though the Brazilian would also lose time with his switch to dry tyres that would cost him his chance of victory. Their first, second and third places were never in doubt, however, once lap 34 had accounted for Robert Kubica. The Pole was leading when his BMW Sauber rolled to a stop, having run longer than the trio. Towards the end, Massa was the fastest man on the track, but the gaps between Raikkonen and Alonso, and Alonso and him, remained largely static as the final laps were reeled off.

Kubica’s misfortune, due to yet another of the hydraulic failures that afflicted the team over the weekend, robbed BMW Sauber of a possible third place, maybe more.

This time the gods of fortune rode at last with Toro Rosso. In the early stages, Tonio Liuzzi was the star, climbing past Mark Webber’s Red Bull on lap one and Nick Heidfeld’s BMW Sauber on lap four. He was fourth when he made his first pit stop on lap 19, but thereafter he got caught up by the rain, and began to lose valuable ground. His initial set of wets grained at the rear, while his replacement dries grained at the front, but he was happy to finish a good sixth, especially as he fended off Heidfeld for the last 17 laps. Team mate Sebastian Vettel was on a single-stop strategy compared to Liuzzi’s two, and that proved critical. The German rookie benefited greatly from stopping at just the right moment, and was thus able to make up for his Fuji gaffe with a smooth and polished drive to fourth place. Thus the once-troubled team took home a haul of eight points that catapulted it from last place in the constructors’ championship, to seventh. Only Ferrari, with 16 points, went home with more.

Honda took home four points, courtesy of Jenson Button who put in a great drive to fifth place which made up for his mistake in Japan. He struggled early on in the wet and slipped to the tail end of the field, but the timing of his first stop and a very strong run on dry tyres enabled him to set fastest laps for while and the climb back. Rubens Barrichello’s race was much less convincing. He clobbered Anthony Davidson in Turn One on the second lap, spinning them both, and after three pit stops finished only 15th.

China was one of those ‘what if’ races for BMW Sauber. After Kubica’s unfortunate demise, wherein his F1.07 lost power steering and then gears, Heidfeld clung on to finish seventh right behind Liuzzi, but he wasn’t happy either and rued the decision to take a second set of wet tyres after 28 laps. By that time my first set was completely finished and he was losing around 12 seconds a lap. Four laps later, when it was clear there wasn’t going to be any more rain, he had to stop again to switch from his new wets to dries.

David Coulthard put Red Bull in the points again with eighth place, but that counted as a disappointment to the Scot as he’d started fifth. It didn’t help that the team’s Toro Rosso stablemates were in the points. He was another one who was unlucky with the timing of his stops, as he changed to dries just before it rained again. At the end he held off a charging Heikki Kovalainen for the last point, with Mark Webber in 10th leading home a challenging Giancarlo Fisichella. Like Coulthard, Webber rued going back to the pits for wet tyres as the rain ended. Red Bull’s sole consolation was that Coulthard’s point brought the deficit to Williams down to four points.

The race marked the first time Renault hasn’t scored since Hungary 2006, Kovalainen reporting lack of grip early on, and Fisichella’s second pit stop robbing him of a better finish. By the end, however, the R27s were flying and Kovalainen firmly believed they had the pace to have finished fourth with better fortune.

Williams’ terrible weekend continued into the race. Nico Rosberg made a poor start, fought back hard, then picked up a puncture on lap 29 as he got pincered by the Renaults going into Turn One and went off together with Kovalainen. That effectively ended his hope of points. Alexander Wurz was running well in the wet, set a fastest lap when he was the first to change to dries, but struggled towards the end of the race as the track dried out.

Toyota’s day began badly as sixth-fastest qualified Ralf Schumacher spun in the first corner. He then staged a great comeback, with an excellent move round the outside of Kovalainen in Turn One. Then on lap 25 he collided with Liuzzi, and slithered off the road before spinning and retiring. Jarno Trulli could do no better than 13th.

Takuma Sato brought his Super Aguri home 14th, as a mechanical problem caused the handling to go awry, but after the collision with Barrichello, Davidson retired with damaged brakes.

Sakon Yamamoto was Spyker’s sole finisher in 17th, three laps down, after Adrian Sutil blotted his copybook by spinning in Turn 16 and walloping the inside wall quite hard. He had switched to dry tyres too early. Yamamoto did the same thing but kept it on the road.

Another dramatic race thus leaves the championship for drivers wide open for the final round, where three men will fight it out for the first time since 1986.

David Tremayne

[Jakarta Expat]

Don't know if any of you caught what Bernie said before this race regarding his wanting LH to win to the championship. Basically he said LH would be best for the sport if he won as he would do the "right thing", Kimi never talks to anyone and about Alonso he said he has the wrong attitude or something to that effect. Bernie sometimes talks a lot of shit and always only looks after his own pocket first even though the sawed off runt is already a billionaire. He got what he deserved this weekend just for his shitty little comments.

[manymercsmike]

I can understand the reluctance to bring Hamilton in to change tyres given the uncertainty over the weather...

...but when you're losing minimum two seconds a lap to the car behind, you have to act. They had three laps to see clearly that he had no traction and understeer. So take the gamble - he doesn't have to win the race - just cement his position in the championship!

The decision to leave him out there was completely incompetent by the team / driver and really should have been looked at in the context of the championship.

So on to Brazil!!!

[Jakarta Expat]

Originally Posted by manymercsmike

I can understand the reluctance to bring Hamilton in to change tyres given the uncertainty over the weather...

...but when you're losing minimum two seconds a lap to the car behind, you have to act. They had three laps to see clearly that he had no traction and understeer. So take the gamble - he doesn't have to win the race - just cement his position in the championship!

The decision to leave him out there was completely incompetent by the team / driver and really should have been looked at in the context of the championship.

So on to Brazil!!!

Very true what you say but could be McLaren as well as LH did it due to what I heard LH said before the start of the race, He supposedly said he would not want to win the championship at a race he only came in 2nd or
3rd.

Ah, to be young and not looking at the big picture, we all know how that is.......

[miroj]

Ron Dennis must think that even a retarded monkey can do the job of race tactics. There is no way that 4 points would have been too hard for Hamilton. But what a difference it would have made.

First that stupid tyre change that put LH into 10th place now a pitt stop which came too late.

There is a very serious problem at McLaren. They seem to hire designers and race planners from the local homeless shelter.

[QBNCGAR]

^ The Ferrari guys aren't much better. The debacle with tires in Japan was sadly reminiscent of a team pre-Schumacher, pre-Brawn.

[Teutone]

Originally Posted by QBNCGAR

^ The Ferrari guys aren't much better. The debacle with tires in Japan was sadly reminiscent of a team pre-Schumacher, pre-Brawn.

Exactly, Ferrari's tire snafu in Japan must have elicited quite a few chuckles along pit row.
It was not the only one this year, and could signify a return to Italian drama.
I read somewhere that the man in charge of racing strategy used to work in a completely unrelated field (personnel?).

[Jakarta Expat]

Bridgestone blast McLaren

Lewis Hamilton's title hopes exploded in Shanghai because McLaren ignored the advice of tyre experts for FIVE crucial laps.

Until now it was thought the 22-year-old sensation and his team pushed their luck just a lap or so too far. But well-placed sources have revealed the scale of the McLaren muddlers' miscalculation in the biggest race of the year.

The blunder could yet cost Lewis a world title and his place in history as Formula One's first rookie champion.

Tyre suppliers Bridgestone are furious that the advice of their experts was ignored in such changeable track conditions, and in such a crucial race.

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Given the variable weather, Hamilton's team were advised he should pit on lap 26.

Yet despite evidence of dramatic tyre wear on pitlane monitors, Hamilton's own radio reports of vibration and all the car data being received in the pits, the team kept him out on the circuit until lap 31.

By then, it was too late.

He was only attempting to negotiate a 40mph left-hand bend at the start of the entry road to the pitlane, but skidded off the tarmac when he braked because his exhausted tyres had nothing more to give.

His McLaren-Mercedes beached on a ridge of sand, sending the championship to a three-way showdown at the final round with Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso. Bosses at Bridgestone, who supply all the teams' tyres, are fuming.

"There are questions being asked high up the company in Japan," said a paddock source. "The top brass are demanding an explanation because they are just amazed by what has happened."

McLaren explained they gambled because Alonso's tyres grained heavily last year when he pitted too soon.

But Bridgestone bosses are bemused because the damage being done to Hamilton's rear tyres could easily be seen on pitlane monitors - and by TV fans thousands of miles away in their armchairs.

It was not only a championship disaster for McLaren and Hamilton, but a public relations catastrophe for Bridgestone, one of the biggest tyre companies in the world.

Embarrassed McLaren tried to spare their blushes by covering the worn-out rear tyres - especially the right - with a tarpaulin as the stricken race machine was returned to the pits on a low loader. McLaren engineers were yesterday immersed in a detailed investigation as race team staff arrived back at the factory near Woking.

Hamilton multiplied the damage because he wanted to keep his word to fans by wrapping up the championship with a stylish victory.

LEADING POSITIONS...

1 L Hamilton 107

2 F Alonso 103

3 K Raikkonen 100

4 F Massa 86

5 N Heidfeld 58

6 R Kubica 35

7 H Kovalainen 30

8 G Fisichella 21

AND WHAT COULD HAPPEN ON OCT 21

Simplest Scenario: A top-two finish makes Hamilton champion.

If Hamilton WINS the race he becomes champion.

If Hamilton finishes SECOND to either driver he becomes champion.

If Hamilton finishes THIRD Alonso can only beat him by winning. They would tie on points but the Spaniard becomes champion on a superior wins count-back (five to four).

If Lewis finishes FOURTH he is champion as long as Alonso doesn't win.

If Hamilton is in any position in the top FIVE it does not matter where Raikkonen finishes.

If Lewis finishes FIFTH Alonso has to win to become champion.

If he finishes SIXTH Raikkonen can take the title with a win and would take the title on a superior wins count-back (six to four wins). But Alonso can beat both by finishing second.

If Hamilton finishes EIGHTH Alonso can take the title by finishing in the top three.

If ALONSO wins Hamilton has to be second.

If ALONSO is out of the top four he cannot become champion.

If RAIKKONEN wins Hamilton has to finish in the top five to beat him but it depends on Alonso's results.

If RAIKKONEN is out of the top two he cannot be champion

Bridgestone blast McLaren - Sport - Mirror.co.uk

[jlomon]

Originally Posted by QBNCGAR

^ The Ferrari guys aren't much better. The debacle with tires in Japan was sadly reminiscent of a team pre-Schumacher, pre-Brawn.

You don't even have to go that far back with Ferrari, unfortunately. I'll never forget the spectacle of an Eddie Irvine pit stop where the mechanics only brought out 3 tires for the car, and when the error was discovered (with Irvine's car up on the jacks) the three mechanics responsible for that wheel started to argue with each other instead of running to get a tire.

[manymercsmike]

Originally Posted by Jakarta Expat

Ah, to be young and not looking at the big picture, we all know how that is.......

I think I've forgotten - getting middle aged in my prime!

Noble sentiments if he wants to win the championship by winning the race - but hopefully he learns from Schuey - it ain't how but how many. And in any case he's given us a brilliant season so far, lots of drama, lots of racecraft, and some excellent qualis. A few more passes would be nice especially on the other McLaren / Ferraris, but you can't have it all, all the time.

Given his general maturity and demeanour towards the season so far, I would still rate his chances very highly and hope he does it, not because he's British but because he genuinely has provided some great moments this year, and has dealt with the usual F1 "politik" sideshow in a sensible fashion.

i.e. get in the race car and drive it feckin fast when required to.

Brazil has provided some great races recently, and some exciting moments too:

1. Montoya bullying his way past Schuey at the Senna S only to be shunted by Verstappen in the Arrows later on
2. DC keeping it on the road to beat Schuey in the same race
3. DC being denied by Webber's shunt on the run into the start finish straight, because Alonso ignored waved yellows (for the second time that year) and butchered his car on a tyre before slamming the tyre wall
4. The river at turn 3 that led to mass retirements with drivers not judging the grip level correctly
5. Schuey's drive of sheer pace and enjoyment last year

I'm hoping we get some more serious action in the last race (and that Hamilton comes out on top with Raikkonen pushing him all the way).